AUTOGRAPHS

Will Jason Heyward hit 40 home runs in his first season?

Look at his built, 245 pounds, 6’5’’, all muscle (according to his teammates). He is a mammoth.

mlb.com shows him to be 6’4″, 220 lbs., big difference. Mo Vaughn was 6’1″ 225, so he was shorter and a lot more heavy set than Heyward. He looks more like Derek Lee to me, Lee is 6’5″ 245 lbs, and has been a very successful/consistent hitter throughout his career, except for injuries in ’99 and ’06.

In 362 total at bats in the minor leagues, he has 117 hits, .323 AVG, 17 HR, 25 2B, 4 3B, 10 SB, 201 TB and a .555 SLG PCT. These are great numbers, but hardly make him a sure-fire candidate to hit 40 bombs against major league pitching in his first season, especially considering he’ll face some tough pitching in that division: Santana, Halladay, J. Johnson, K-Rod.

Considering how young he is, lack of experience, it will take him a few years to catch up to good major league pitching, but he will have his share of singles, doubles and homeruns against the really bad pitchers, but he will strike out a lot, especially if he’s trying to hit homeruns, instead of just make contact.

If he focuses more on making contact, and finds a nice, snuggly place underneath Terry Pendleton and Chipper’s wing, he’ll get some good education and possibly blossom into a great contact hitter, similar to Derek Lee.

If he follows that road, I expect he’ll produce a solid rookie campaign, possibly: .290 AVG, 18 HR, 80 RBI, 30 2B, 8 SB – ROY candidate

If he doesn’t learn from his hitting coaches and veteran players, trying to impress agents and media hitting homeruns, his progress and numbers will most likely suffere and he’ll produce a rookie campaign more along the lines of: .260 AVG, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 23 2B, 5 SB.

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