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2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: A Sneak Preview

2011 fantasy football rankings in January?!!  Hey, it’s never too early to start looking ahead to the 2011 fantasy football season.  Whether you took home some hardware last year, or finished in the basement, getting a head start on your competition for 2011 can be key.  Here at DraftSharks.com, we’ll spend the entire offseason formulating our 2011 fantasy football rankings.  Free agency, the NFL Draft, training camps, and the preseason will all play a part in what our final projections look like.

But as a starting point, it’s a good idea to take a look at how the average 2011 fantasy football draft may play out.  From there, we can start to examine which players may be overvalued or undervalued.  On that note, here’s a look at what the “consensus” rankings may look like at each position for the 2011 fantasy football season:

QBs

1. Michael Vick, Eagles

A no-brainer here.  Despite appearing in only 12 games, Vick finished as the #5 fantasy QB in 2010.  On a per-game basis, he was 5 points ahead of the next closest competitor.  Vick will be the 1st QB off the board this summer.  The real question is whether or not he’ll be the 1st overall pick in 2011 fantasy football drafts.

2. Tom Brady, Patriots

His numbers actually improved after WR Randy Moss was shipped out of town.  Brady finished with a ridiculous 36-to-4 TD:INT ratio to go along with 3,900 passing yards.  He only finished 6th among QBs in fantasy points, but the name value will likely bump him ahead of guys like Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.

3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers

He’s been money in the bank since taking over as Green Bay’s starting QB.  Rodgers is the only player to finish among the top-2 at his position in each of the last 3 years.  A-Rodg has thrown for 3,900+ yards and 28+ TDs in 3 straight seasons.  And his legs make him even more valuable.  He’s rushed for 13 TDs over the past 3 years.

4. Drew Brees, Saints

Brees is one of the safest picks in fantasy football.  He’s tossed for at least 4,300 yards and 26 TDs in each of his 5 seasons in New Orleans.  He’ll come off the board in the 2nd or 3rd-round of 2011 fantasy football drafts.

5. Philip Rivers, Chargers

Rivers threw for a career-high 4,710 passing yards in 2010.  And he did it with a hodge-podge of receiving options.  Regardless of whether or not WR Vincent Jackson returns to San Diego, Rivers will be one of the first 5 or 6 QBs off the board next season.

6. Peyton Manning, Colts

The public’s perception of Manning is down after he tossed 17 INTs in 2010 – the 2nd-most of his 11-year career.  But he still threw 31+ scores for the 4th time in the past 5 seasons, while also racking up 4,700 yards.  Count on another big season for him in 2011 as he gets TE Dallas Clark and WR Austin Collie back.  You may actually be able to get Manning at a value this summer.

7. Tony Romo, Cowboys

Don’t forget about this guy.  A broken collarbone in Week 7 cut his season short.  But he was fantasy football’s 6th-ranked QB prior to the injury.  With arguably the league’s most dangerous group of weapons – Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Felix Jones – Romo has immense upside in 2011.

8. Matt Schaub, Texans

There’s a sizeable drop-off at the QB position after the top-7.  Any number of guys could be the next one off the board.  We’re guessing it’ll be Schaub, who’s coming off back-to-back top-8 fantasy finishes.  A full season of a healthy Andre Johnson should help him push that streak to 3.

9. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

Big Ben was a bit underappreciated in fantasy circles this season because of his 4-game suspension to open the year.  But from a points-per-game perspective, only 6 QBs were more productive.  With a young-but-rapidly-improving group of receivers, 2011 could be a career-year for Roethlisberger.  He’s another guy who could be a big-time value in 2011 fantasy football drafts.

10. Eli Manning, Giants

Like his big brother, Eli was bit by the turnover bug in 2010.  His 25 INTs were easily a career-high.  But Manning still managed to finish as a top-10 QB thanks to his 4,002 passing yards and 31 TDs.  Even if WR Steve Smith leaves via free-agency, Manning will still have 2 supremely talented WRs to work with in Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham.

Just missed: Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco

 

RBs

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings

It doesn’t look like there will be a consensus #1 RB in 2011 fantasy football drafts.  AP may get the nod though.  He’s finished among the top-3 at his position in each of the last 4 seasons – the only player who can say that.  HC Leslie Frazier promises to employ a run-heavy offense moving forward, making Peterson the safest RB on the board.

2. Arian Foster, Texans

2010′s top RB will undoubtedly be near the top of draft boards this summer.  Foster led the league with 1,616 rushing yards, and tacked on 66 receptions for 604 receiving yards for good measure.  Toss in 18 TDs, and Foster finished 80 points clear of fantasy football’s #2 RB, Peyton Hillis.  The one concern for Foster heading into 2011?  The massive 393-touch workload he endured this season.

3. Chris Johnson, Titans

Relatively speaking, Johnson had a disappointing 2010 season.  His numbers were down across the board – rushing yards, receiving yards, TDs, receptions, yards-per-rush.  But let’s not forget that he still finished 5th among RBs in fantasy points.  Once the sour taste of this season wears off, CJ2K will still be selected near the top of 2011 fantasy football drafts.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars

His 1,640-total-yard campaign seems a helluva lot more impressive when you consider that he did it on a torn meniscus in his right knee.  MJD is scheduled for surgery this offseason, but he’ll be back to 100% in plenty of time for training camp.  Still just 25 years old, he’s still an elite fantasy option.

5. LeSean McCoy, Eagles

We gotta give some love to the 2010 DraftSharks.com Breakout Player of the Year.  This seems high for a relatively unproven commodity, but that can be said about most of these backs outside the top-4.  Shady McCoy is an improving young back on one of the game’s most explosive offenses.  His supreme skills in the passing game make him virtually dud-proof.

6. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs

Despite a spotty usage pattern by HC Todd Haley, J-Chaz still managed to finish 2nd in the NFL with 1,467 rushing yards.  He was just as dominant in the passing game, hauling in 45 balls for 468 yards.  RB Thomas Jones isn’t getting any younger, so Charles’ role should be even bigger in 2011.

7. Ray Rice, Ravens

A consensus top-4 pick, Rice was a minor disappointment in 2010.  His rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions, and TDs all dropped from 2009.  Still, he finished 11th among RBs in standard-scoring fantasy leagues, proving that he’s a relatively safe 1st-round pick.

8. Darren McFadden, Raiders

Are you a believer in the 2010 version of McFadden?  Or will he revert back to the injury-prone bust he was in his first 2 NFL seasons?  McFadden could end up going anywhere from the top half of the 1st-round to the start of the 2nd-round in 2011 fantasy football drafts.

9. Frank Gore, 49ers

A serious hip injury ended Gore’s 2010 season in Week 12.  He’ll be back to 100% in plenty of time for training camp, but it’s still something to keep an eye on.  At just 28 years old, Gore should still have at least 1 more top-10 season in his tank.  The fact that 2011 is a contract year doesn’t hurt either.

10. Peyton Hillis, Browns

2010′s waiver wire darling will undoubtedly be a hot topic of debate this summer.  Is he a star in the making?  Or was 2010 merely a fluke?  Hillis’ ungodly combination of size and athleticism are working in his favor.  But his 331 touches and the return of 2010 2nd-round pick Montario Hardesty are definitely issues worth considering.

Just missed: Michael Turner, Rashard Mendenhall, Matt Forte, Steven Jackson

 

WRs

1. Roddy White, Falcons

He’s been a model of consistency, totaling at least 83 catches and 1,150 yards in each of the last 4 seasons.  Just 29 years old, White is in his prime right now.  And QB Matt Ryan is only getting better.  The Johnson boys may have more upside, but White will be the safest WR on the board in 2011 fantasy drafts.

2. Andre Johnson, Texans

Coming off back-to-back 1,500-yard seasons, Johnson regressed to just 1,216 yards in 2010.  A high ankle sprain that plagued him for most of the season – and caused him to miss 3 games – was the main culprit.  When healthy, Johnson is still one of the best WRs in the game.  He’ll be a borderline 1st-round pick this summer.

3. Calvin Johnson, Lions

Megatron tied a career-high with 12 TDs in 2010.  His 77 receptions and 1,120 receiving yards weren’t too shabby either.  And he did it with QBs Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton under center for most of the year.  If QB Matt Stafford can stay healthy, Johnson’s upside is through the roof.

4. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs

Was there a tougher player to figure out in 2010?  Bowe caught just 1 TD in his first 4 games, and then went on a tear that saw him hit pay dirt 13 times in 7 games.  But he disappeared again down the stretch, scoring just once in his final 5 contests.  Still, when all was said and done, Bowe was fantasy football’s #2 WR.  He’ll be drafted among the top-5 wideouts in 2011.

5. Greg Jennings, Packers

After a disappointing 2009, Jennings rebounded in a big way in 2010.  He found the end zone or posted at least 80 yards in an incredible 13 of 16 games.  As the #1 WR on one of the league’s most explosive passing games, Jennings will be a rock-solid 2nd-round pick in 2011 fantasy football drafts.

6. Reggie Wayne, Colts

111 catches and 1,355 receiving yards assured Wayne of another top-10 fantasy finish in 2010.  But he scored only 6 TDs, and his 12.2 yards-per-catch average was a career-low.  At 32 years old, it’s fair to wonder if he’s lost a step.  He may be overvalued in fantasy drafts this summer.

7. Hakeem Nicks, Giants

When he’s on the field, Nicks is unstoppable.  He scored 11 times in just 13 games this past season, including 3 multi-TD outings.  Durability will be a major issue heading into 2011 though.  After missing 2 games in his rookie campaign, Nicks was held out of 3 more in 2010.  He’s looking like a high-risk, high-reward fantasy pick going forward.

8. Miles Austin, Cowboys

No one missed Tony Romo more than Austin.  He topped 140 yards in 3 of Romo’s 5 full games, adding 2 TDs to boot.  But with Jon Kitna and Stephen McGee at the helm, Austin posted just 2 more 100-yard games and only 5 more scores.  Less savvy fantasy owners may undervalue Austin this summer when they see he finished just 17th among WRs in 2010.  Don’t be one of them.

9. Brandon Lloyd, Broncos

Lloyd was the biggest surprise of the 2010 season — no questions asked.  His 77 catches, 1,448 yards, and 11 TDs were more than he’d posted in the 4 previous seasons… combined!  Fueled by Josh McDaniels’ pass-first offense and some brilliant play by Kyle Orton, Lloyd was a dominant force all season.  But with McDaniels gone — and Orton likely following him out the door — what will Lloyd do for an encore?

10. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

How good was Fitzgerald this past season?  Despite a combination of Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and Johnson Skelton at QB — there wasn’t an uglier situation in the league — Fitz still managed to haul in 90 balls for 1,137 yards and 6 scores.  If Arizona brings in a veteran QB like Kyle Orton or Donovan McNabb, Fitz could easily vault back into the top-5 fantasy WRs in 2011.

Just missed: DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson, Jeremy Maclin

 

TEs

1. Antonio Gates, Chargers

A pesky foot injury was the only thing that kept Gates from a record-breaking season.  Despite missing 6 games, he still finished 2nd among TEs in fantasy points.  His average of 78 yards and 1 TD per game had him on a pace for a ridiculous 1,248 yards and 16 scores.  He’ll be back to 100% in plenty of time for training camp and will be the undisputed #1 TE in 2011 fantasy football drafts.

2. Jason Witten, Cowboys

Thanks to Antonio Gates’ foot injury, Witten finished atop the TE heap in 2010.  Let’s not take anything away from his season though.  Witten caught 94 balls for the 2nd straight season, and his 9 TDs were a career-high.  Ultra-consistent and incredibly durable, Witten will once again be one of the safest picks in fantasy drafts this summer.  The return of Tony Romo won’t hurt either.

3. Dallas Clark, Colts

A hand injury ended Clark’s 2010 season in Week 6.  But he was as dominant as ever prior to that, totaling 347 yards and 3 scores.  From a points-per-game perspective, only Gates and Witten were better.  When he’s healthy, Clark has as much upside as any TE in the game.  But you can’t ignore the fact that he’s missed 23 games in his 8-year career when you’re slotting him in your 2011 fantasy football rankings.

4. Jermichael Finley, Packers

This guy’s upside is through the roof.  A WR in a TE’s body, Finley was off the a red-hot start in 2010 before suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 5.  He had topped 100 yards in 2 of his first 3 games.  And more importantly, he was leading Green Bay in targets before going down with that knee injury.  He’ll return in 2011 as a major part of the Packers passing attack.

5. Vernon Davis, 49ers

VD fought through shaky QB play in 2010 to post his 2nd-straight 900+ yard season.  Coupled with 7 TDs, Davis finished 3rd among TEs in fantasy points.  The arrival of HC Jim Harbaugh should spark this offense, but the Niners need to find a franchise QB if Davis hopes to climb the fantasy rankings.

6. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars

Lewis morphed into a TD-machine in 2010.  The owner of just 7 career scores in his first 4 seasons, Lewis hit pay dirt 10 times this past year.  His 58 grabs and 700 yards were pretty impressive too.  Guys that post big TD numbers tend to disappoint the next year though (see: Visanthe Shiancoe).  Lewis may be overvalued in 2011 fantasy football drafts.

7. Kellen Winslow, Bucs

Winslow got excellent QB play from Josh Freeman this past season, and responded with 730 yards and 5 scores.  This offense is ready to really take off in 2011.  Winslow, still just 28 years old, should be a big part of it.

8. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons

The future Hall-of-Famer has definitely lost a step.  His 656 receiving yards and 9.4 yards-per-catch average in 2011 were both career-lows.  Still, he pushed his streak of at least 70 catches to 8 straight seasons.  Gonzo has never finished outside the top-10 fantasy TEs, so barring an unexpected retirement, he’ll be slotted among the top-10 in 2011 fantasy football rankings.

9. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots

His 10 TDs tied with Antonio Gates and Marcedes Lewis for most among TEs.  It didn’t take Gronk long to establish a level of trust with Tom Brady that usually takes years and years to develop.  The only thing limiting Gronkowski’s upside moving forward is the presence of the equally-talented Aaron Hernandez.

10. Chris Cooley, Redskins

Same old, same old for Cooley: plenty of yards but no TDs.  Over the past 3 seasons, Cooley has averaged 52 yards per game but has only scored 6 times.  His placement in 2011 fantasy football rankings hinges on what Washington does with its QB situation.

Just missed: Zach Miller, Dustin Keller, Brandon Pettigrew

 

 

 

 

About the Author

Lenny Pappano | Executive Director
Lenny Pappano is co-founder of Draft Sharks, as well as a co-founder of The World Championship of Fantasy Football. In his 10 years of experience in the fantasy football business Pappano has won many awards including several Fantasy Expert leagues and polls since 1999. He also took the FSWA’s award for “Best Fantasy Football Article” with his acclaimed piece, “Confessions of a Fantasy Expert.” Pappano has written articles for countless FF magazines and he’s one of the biggest names in this industry.

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